Saturday 9 July 2011

christy chung glen ross

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  • Photographer: Glen Luchford



  • akkakarla
    07-15 11:28 AM
    Let us be honest. A lot of us who came through body shops had to pay lawyer fee or had to take a cut in pay. Many of us had to sit in the bench for a long time with out pay. At the end of the day, not all of us are the best and the brightest but we are ready to work harder than the average Joe. With or without us this country will go forward. We are here to get a greencard and to become part of the melting pot. Please admit it my friends. I fully understands why many Americans are against us. We simply take their job. Then we insult them. Then we say, if we go back the American economy will go to hell. The companies are here for cheap labor. The congressmen who support them are the biggest receivers of their contribution. That is the reality. Let us not forget that. :D

    You cannot make a definite conclusion that everyone come through Body Shops and Stay on Bench etc. There are many who came to do Masters and got good jobs on H1B. Because of few rare incidents you cannot generalise that everyone do the same. We Indians(atleast the indians I know) never felt that way of American economy will go to hell blah blah if we are not there. Maybe you feel that way then it shows your arrogance. We need to be careful not to dig grave by ourselves by posting or quoting rare incidents because Immigration Opposing people frequently visit these forums and take them as "Quote: An Indian Posted like this on that forum"





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  • Photographer: Glen Luchford



  • qasleuth
    06-05 11:27 AM
    Totally agree ! To add, the decision to buy a house for people like us (who are stuck in this muck) also depends on the life situation you are in. Meaning, the decision to buy a house inspite of the uncertainity was over-weighed by the fact that my kids need to enjoy certain things. Watching them play with kids of their age in the neighborhood, riding a bicycle or playing with the water sprinkler while I sip my beer is priceless.

    Reading the article I take it that the writer is only concerned about the profitability of buying a house in the current situation. He's not of the opinion that buying a house is bad investment, ever! But a good investor does not try to time the market; it is, in my opinion, even if you tried, an art and not a science. So now maybe the best time to buy actually!

    But I have also seen many ignorant, anti-capitalist, anti-government, conspiracy theorist freaks out there, blogging from their basement, and writing articles suggesting that the government is somehow brain washing the public into buy a house so that they'll become the government�s slaves for the rest of their lives. These guys have actually never ever made any real money. They come up with short sighted calculations to prove that renting for life is better than owning a home. In my opinion no one should be listening to these people. I have yet to hear from a successful investor, or a businessman, or anyone that has what you may call reasonable wealth, saying that real estate is bad in the long run. I would take these people's advice any day because they have the money to show for their sound investment strategies, one of them being investment in a house, or a piece of real estate.

    We as immigrants who are not sure of where we'll be in the next 5 years may want to consider the fact before investing in a house. But anyone else that has no such worries would be foolish not to buy a house thinking it is a doomed investment.





    christy chung glen ross. Photographer: Glen Luchford
  • Photographer: Glen Luchford



  • sidchhikara
    04-06 10:24 PM
    But congress needs to find some solution for H1b mess like applying 150k H1b in one day. If no alternative solution is suggested some part/all part of this bill may be considered. US companies will not be impacted as they are not h1b dependent and they are hiring more than 50% US workers so they may not oppose that much. If Microsoft lobby for 200k H1b but still if they could not get any h1b why will they lobby it? American companies will either ask unlimited H1b or restrictions for bodyshopping so that everyone will get fair share of H1b. Lottery is shame as many deserving candidates will be rejected but many lower grade people may enter there is no merrit in selection of H1b. If IV is opposing this they need to give some solution for H1b mess. Otherwise no point. Also the bill was introduced by both Democrat and Republican. So Whether it is passed or not it is going to be considered
    what are you saying? The above post is totally incoherent





    2011 Photographer: Glen Luchford christy chung glen ross. Palvin by Glen Luchford
  • Palvin by Glen Luchford



  • bkarnik
    08-06 06:16 PM
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    "Sometimes when I reflect back on all the beer I drink I feel shamed. Then I look into the glass and think about the workers in the brewery and all of their hopes and dreams. If I didn't drink this beer, they might be out of work and their dreams would be shattered. Then I say to myself, "It is better that I drink this beer and let their dreams come true than be selfish and worry about my liver."
    ~ Jack Handy


    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    "I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day. "
    ~Frank Sinatra
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    "When I read about the evils of drinking, I gave up reading."
    ~ Henny Youngman

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    "24 hours in a day, 24 beers in a case. Coincidence? I think not."
    ~ Stephen Wright

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    "When we drink, we get drunk. When we get drunk, we fall asleep. When we fall asleep, we commit no sin. When we commit no sin, we go to heaven. Sooooo, let's all get drunk and go to heaven!"
    ~ Brian O'Rourke

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    "Beer is proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy."
    ~ Benjamin Franklin

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    "Without question, the greatest invention in the history of mankind is beer. Oh, I grant you that the wheel was also a fine invention, but the wheel does not go nearly as well with pizza."
    ~ Dave Barry

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    And saving the best for last, as explained by Cliff Clavin, of Cheers. One afternoon at Cheers, Cliff was explaining the Buffalo Theory to his buddy Norm. Here's how it went:

    "Well ya see, Norm, it's like this... A herd of buffalo can only move as fast as the slowest buffalo. And when the herd is hunted, it is the slowest and weakest ones at the back that are killed first. This natural selection is good for the herd as a whole, because the general speed and health of the whole group keeps improving by the regular killing of the weakest members. In much the same way, the human brain can only operate as fast as the slowest brain cells. Excessive intake of alcohol, as we know, kills brain cells. But naturally, it attacks the slowest and weakest brain cells first. In this way, regular consumption of beer eliminates the weaker brain cells, making the brain a faster and more efficient machine. ! That's why you always feel smarter after a few beers."



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  • anandrajesh
    03-25 05:06 PM
    lol...you are right..

    but dont know... I am going by hunch..I hope not to regret..:)

    Sometimes you listen to your heart and take a decision
    Sometimes you listen to your brain and take a decision.

    I believe this situation should warrant you to listen to your brain and hire a good attorney.
    Dont go by your hunch (or heart). Again a friendly advice because there is just too much at stake.

    Good luck no matter what you decide.





    christy chung glen ross. Onopka by Glen Luchford
  • Onopka by Glen Luchford



  • unseenguy
    06-24 11:51 PM
    Why are be debating 3 - 4 years rent vs own? As the subject indicates "long" term prospects of buying a home..we of all the ppl should know the meaning of the word "long" based on our "long" wait for PD (which I think should be renamed to retrogress date because I see nothing priority about it)..the point being lets debate 10 years rent vs own..as against 3-4...I think over a 10 year timeline the buyers would come out ahead of the renters..maybe not in CA but in other states that's quite likely..

    coz, next 3-4 years make it special due to immigration status and special status of the economy and you can plan for 5-7 years but whats going to happen after that is beyond anyone.



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  • Ross by Natalia Alaverdyan



  • s_r_e_e
    08-05 04:56 PM
    great .. keep it going :)





    2010 Photographer: Glen Luchford christy chung glen ross. Sui He by Glen Luchford
  • Sui He by Glen Luchford



  • chanduv23
    04-12 04:46 PM
    Many/most of us here have worked like crazy dogs most of lives, followed the rules, and played by the book. "Everyone" does not have your cavalier attitude towards truth.


    Working like crazy dogs????? Thats your problem. No one asked you to. if you worked like crazy dogs
    (1) Either your employer enslaved you
    (2) or You did it on your own

    40 hours per week is standard working hours. Anything more than that is generally done at times of need. So if you are constantly working and complaining about that, then thats entirely your fault.



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  • jung.lee
    04-05 06:07 PM
    The analysis is interesting, but this much amount has already been written off considering 100% of option ARM, and alt-ARM will fail.

    I think you missed my point. I was not trying to connect the ARM reset schedule with write-offs at wall street firms. Instead, I was trying to point out that there will be increased number of foreclosures as those ARMs reset over the next 36 months.

    The next phase of the logic is: increased foreclosures will lead to increased inventory, which leads to lower prices, which leads to still more foreclosures and "walk aways" (people -citizens- who just dont want to pay the high mortgages any more since it is way cheaper to rent). This leads to still lower prices. Prices will likely stabilize when it is cheaper to buy vs. rent. Right now that calculus is inverted. In many bubble areas (both coasts, at a minimum) you would pay significantly more to buy than to rent (2X or more per month with a conventional mortgage in some good areas).

    On the whole, I will debate only on financial and rational points. I am not going to question someone's emotional position on "homeownership." It is too complicated to extract someone out of their strongly held beliefs about how it is better to pay your own mortgage than someone elses, etc. All that is hubris that is ingrained from 5+ years of abnormally strong rising prices.

    Let us say that you have two kids, age 2 and 5. The 5 year old is entering kindergarten next fall. You decide to buy in a good school district this year. Since your main decision was based on school choice, let us say that your investment horizon is 16 years (the year your 2 year old will finish high school at age 18).

    Let us further assume that you will buy a house at the price of $600,000 in Bergen County, with 20% down ($120,000) this summer. The terms of the loan are 30 year fixed, 5.75% APR. This loan payment alone is $2800 per month. On top of that you will be paying at least 1.5% of value in property taxes, around $9,000 per year, or around $750 per month. Insurance will cost you around $1500 - $2000 per year, or another $150 or so per month. So your total committed payments will be around $3,700 per month.

    You will pay for yard work (unless you are a do-it-yourself-er), and maintenance, and through the nose for utilities because a big house costs big to heat and cool. (Summers are OK, but desis want their houses warm enough in the winter for a lungi or veshti:))

    Let us assume further that in Bergen county, you can rent something bigger and more comfortable than your 1200 sq ft apartment from a private party for around $2000. So your rental cost to house payment ratio is around 1.8X (3700/2000).

    Let us say further that the market drops 30% conservatively (will likely be more), from today through bottom in 4 years. Your $600k house will be worth 30% less, i.e. $420,000. Your loan will still be worth around $450k. If you needed to sell at this point in time, with 6% selling cost, you will need to bring cash to closing as a seller i.e., you are screwed. At escrow, you will need to pay off the loan of $450k, and pay 6% closing costs, which means you need to bring $450k+$25k-$420k = $55,000 to closing.

    So you stand to lose:

    1. Your down payment of $120k
    2. Your cash at closing if you sell in 4 years: $55k
    3. Rental differential: 48 months X (3700 - 2000) = $81k

    Total potential loss: $250,000!!!

    This is not a "nightmare scenario" but a very real one. It is happenning right now in many parts of the country, and is just now hitting the more populated areas of the two coasts. There is still more to come.

    My 2 cents for you guys, desi bhais, please do what you need to do, but keep your eyes open. This time the downturn is very different from the business-investment related downturn that followed the dot com bust earlier this decade.





    hair Palvin by Glen Luchford christy chung glen ross. Jablonski by Glen Luchford
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  • xyzgc
    01-09 01:04 PM
    refugee, you must learn a few thing from alisa. alisa is a pakistani and look at his well-structured arguments. In contrast, look at you and your abusive language. When will guys you (buddyinfo, acool) learn to show restraint and be intellectuals instead of howling like mad dogs?



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  • gimme_GC2006
    03-23 08:23 PM
    ok...this is something..

    apparently they called my employer also and has asked them to provide all details.

    All I-9s
    All performance appraisals
    my works schedule
    my vacation requests this year
    current salary
    supervisor details


    :)





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  • 2010 - Ross Crawford by



  • unitednations
    08-09 02:20 PM
    While most of us here have US Citizenship as their long term goal, they overlook that fact and focus on manipulating stuff to get a GC which might have severe consequences while applying for Naturalization.

    Let me share with you the story of my friend who just got his US Citizenship in 2007.

    He was out of status without salary for around 6 months during the recession time (2001/2002) and didn�t have W2 for that period either. When USCIS questioned his out of status, he just submitted a letter from the employer stating that they owe some $$$ during that period and will be running his back pay at the earliest. This letter nullified his out of status and was sufficient to satisfy the IO to get his I-485 approved.

    Infact, the company in question didn�t run his back pay at all after his I-485 approval and went bankrupt.

    While applying for Naturalization, one of the items that the beneficiary has to prove is �Good Moral Character�. While scrutinizing his records they found that he didn�t file his tax returns during the year in question and denied his naturalization.

    He had to run from pillar to post and finally got hold of a good attorney who was able to prove that the employer who was supposed to pay the back wages went bankrupt and hence he wasn�t paid, because of which he could file his tax returns. He submitted a letter with proof of bankruptcy and succeeded in his appeal resulting in approval. The whole case dragged for around a year.

    Hence please pay attention to every minute detail before and after you get your GC, so that you don�t end up in a mess while applying for naturalization.

    I second that notion. Although very rare that uscis adjudicators can go that deep in naturalization; it isn't over when you get a greencard, contrary to what many people think.



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  • axbasit
    12-28 03:52 PM
    I always believed that this was the place to talk about problems faced by potential immigrants, and it would not matter from where they came from? but this
    forum is turning into something else.

    would administrator(s) act professionally and lock this discussion? and if these discussions would further be allowed at this point, I suggest change this website to indianimmigrationvoice.org





    tattoo Onopka by Glen Luchford christy chung glen ross. Models: Diana Chung (Ford) and
  • Models: Diana Chung (Ford) and



  • Dhundhun
    08-05 06:43 PM
    Friends

    Keep it up and going. Jokes are wonderful and quite relaxing. I think they in in need indeed.

    Thanks



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  • gc28262
    09-26 01:07 PM
    I wish there was a rule not to pay any taxes till we the GC , that will change a lot doesnt it .


    Along with our efforts here, we should push Indian gov for the social security deal with US.

    Once the deal is done, potential EB immigrant leaving the country with all his/her social security deposit will make everyone in this country rethink about being harsh on EB immigrants.





    dresses 2010 - Ross Crawford by christy chung glen ross. CAIN Glen M 1940-1985
  • CAIN Glen M 1940-1985



  • BumbleBee
    03-24 02:41 PM
    Again, I am not the one you should be asking to define "full-time" and "temp" type jobs. Ask USCIS or DOL or whoever is going to adjudicate your green card.

    I am simply saying that if USCIS has made a distinction between perm job and temp job, AND if they feel that consulting job is of temp type, someone along the line has dropped the ball and missed this. They also missed the fact that the employee needs to work at the LCA specified location. They also missed (or circumvented) that benching is not allowed.

    You can blame anyone and everyone for it. Maybe the immigration attorneys were the ones that should have warned both the employers and employees that consulting jobs do not fit the H-1B requirement. Maybe USCIS was sleeping all the while and suddenly they decided to start enforcing this. But the fact that they can ALL-OF-A-SUDDEN claim that H-1B visa is for permanent jobs only, AND that employees need to stay in the LCA location means that our lawyers, employers, and employees were incompetent in their judgment and did not do their due diligence to protect against potential audits and queries.
    I am telling you the same thing I told the other guy .... you don't need to give me justifications.

    Just hope that USCIS will buy your story!

    http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=bac7d92e8003f010VgnVCM1000000ecd190aRCR D&vgnextchannel=1847c9ee2f82b010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRD

    Q : What is an H-1B?

    The H-1B is a nonimmigrant classification used by an alien who will be employed temporarily in a specialty occupation or as a fashion model of distinguished merit and ability.

    As per USCIS, H1B is for temporary job



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  • Pineapple
    12-24 04:31 PM
    Dude, I have donated over $ 1000 to IV so far, and participated in every campaign, and made enough calls to give me blisters, all without seeking attention or green dots. Next please?

    I think you and many others like you didn't want to go in the first place. You are just inventing an excuse.
    There are other threads on this forum, this is not a good excuse. If you don't like this thread, don't bother reading it. Its really simple.





    girlfriend Models: Diana Chung (Ford) and christy chung glen ross. Ross by Natalia Alaverdyan
  • Ross by Natalia Alaverdyan



  • bkarnik
    08-05 05:45 PM
    We always hear "the rules" from the female side. Now here are the rules from the male side. These are our rules! Print this out and pass to your partner for a greater understanding:

    1. Learn to work the toilet seat. You're a big girl. If it's up, put it down. We need it up, you need it down. You don't hear us bitching about you leaving it down.

    2. Birthdays, Valentines, and Anniversaries are not quests to see if we can find the perfect present yet again!

    3. Sometimes we are not thinking about you. Live with it.

    4. Don't cut your hair. Ever. Long hair is always more attractive than short hair. One of the big reasons guys fear getting married is that married women always cut their hair, and by then you're stuck with her.

    5. Crying is blackmail.

    6. Ask for what you want. Let us be clear on this one: Subtle hints do not work! Strong hints do not work! Obvious hints do not work! Just say it!

    7. We don't remember dates. Mark birthdays and anniversaries on a calendar. Remind us frequently beforehand.

    8. Most guys own three pairs of shoes - tops. What makes you think we'd be any good at choosing which pair, out of thirty, would look good with your dress?

    9. Yes and No are perfectly acceptable answers to almost every question.

    10. Come to us with a problem only if you want help solving it. That's what we do. Sympathy is what your girlfriends are for.

    11. A headache that lasts for 17 months is a problem.See a doctor.

    12. Check your oil! Please.

    13. Anything we said 6 months ago is inadmissible in an argument. In fact, all comments become null and void after 7 days.

    14. If you think you're fat, you probably are. Don't ask us. We refuse to answer.

    15. If something we said can be interpreted two ways, and one of the ways makes you sad or angry, we meant the other one.

    16. You can either ask us to do something or tell us how you want it done. Not both. If you already know best how to do it, just do it yourself.

    17. Whenever possible, please say whatever you have to say during commercials.

    18. Christopher Columbus did not need directions, and neither do we.

    19. All men see in only 16 colors, like windows default settings. Peach, for example, is a fruit, not a colour. We have no idea what mauve is.

    20. If it itches, it will be scratched. We do that.

    21. We are not mind readers and we never will be. Our lack of mind-reading ability is not proof of how little we care about you.

    22. If we ask what is wrong and you say "nothing," we will act like nothing's wrong. We know you are lying,but it is just not worth the hassle.

    23. If you ask a question you don't want an answer to, expect an answer you don't want to hear.

    24. When we have to go somewhere, absolutely anything you wear is fine. Really.

    25. Don't ask us what we're thinking about unless you are prepared to discuss such topics as the shotgun formation, or monster trucks.

    26. You have enough clothes.

    27. You have too many shoes.

    28. No you really do have too many clothes and shoes.

    29. BEER is as exciting for us as handbags are for you.

    30. Thank you for reading this; Yes, I know, I have to sleep on the couch tonight, but did you know we really don't mind that, it's like camping.

    31. I'm in shape. ROUND is a shape.





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  • rajeshiv
    07-10 01:04 PM
    That's correct spelling mistakes, etc., can be corrected if you go back to the port of entry who generated the I-94 card.

    I 102 is more for replacement of an I-94 card.

    However; POE entering you on a wrong companies h-1b isn't so easily correctible after the fact.

    In situations such as this; it is better to go back out and re-enter with proper company h-1b.

    In May and June before people were getting ready to file the 485's a lot of these issues were found in reviewing their files/history. Many people had their visas expired and they didn't want to go for visa stamping. What many people did was go to Canada and use auto revalidation and then re-enter USA on the proper companies h-1b and/or get a new I-94 card and also reset the 245k benefit since it is measured from the date of last entry to filing the 485.

    Hello United Nations..

    After looking into above message...I have some doubts, could you please clarify them.

    1. In order to file 485, the person must have a valid visa in his passport?
    In my case I have a valid I 94 but my visa got expired 2 months back, Am I eligible to file 485?

    2. What is auto revalidation?

    I appreciate for your answers.

    Thanks
    RR





    Macaca
    11-29 08:39 PM
    Trade groups question new lobbying law (http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/trade-groups-question-new-lobbying-law-2007-11-28.html) By Jim Snyder | The Hill, November 28, 2007

    Trade groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce say a new lobbying law could require the release of their member lists, violating freedom of association protections granted by the Constitution.

    The Chamber, the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) and the American Society of Association Executives wrote Senate Secretary Nancy Erickson and House Clerk Lorraine Miller on Wednesday asking for clarification in how the new law will be applied.

    The potential problem relates to a section in the Honest Leadership and Open Government Act of 2007 that would impose new lobbying disclosure rules.

    The trade groups said Congress wrote the section of the law to shine light on so-called �stealth coalitions� that often use innocuous-sounding names to anonymously represent specific industries.

    But the imprecision of lobbying definitions in the law could mean disclosure requirements would fall on a variety of trade groups, the groups said in the letter.

    Groups that fail to accurately disclose their lobbying activities now will face criminal penalties, the letter also notes.

    �The price for being wrong is extremely high,� said Steven Law, senior vice president and chief legal officer for the Chamber.

    The letter was signed by Law; Jim Clarke, senior vice president of public policy for the American Society of Association Executives; and Jan Amundson, senior vice president and general counsel at NAM.

    The lobbying law, passed in response to scandals surrounding Jack Abramoff and ex-Rep. Randy �Duke� Cunningham (R-Calif.), would require disclosure of any organization or entity that �actively participates in the planning, supervision, or control� in lobbying activities and contributes more than $5,000 per quarter for those efforts.

    The �breadth and vagueness of the provision� require further clarification in how the new law will be applied, the letter stated.

    The groups noted Supreme Court rulings that they say prohibit the government from forcing groups to disclose their membership without a compelling government interest in doing so.

    �We take seriously the constitutional rights of our members to associate freely without government looking over our shoulders,� Law said.

    Brett Kappel, a campaign finance and government ethics lawyer, said Congress wrote the provision to target ad-hoc associations that are formed to lobby on a particular issue.

    �These typically spring up when there is legislation that would have a major economic impact on a small number of companies from a specific segment of the economy. That�s when they form the Coalition for Apple Pie and Motherhood and lobby against it,� said Kappel, who practices at the firm Vorys, Sater, Seymour and Pease.

    The new law �wasn�t designed to get at trade associations,� he said.

    Law said the lobbying law gives the clerk and the secretary broad powers in implementing the new requirements. He said he expected further guidance from those offices by Dec. 10.





    Macaca
    05-02 05:38 PM
    Don't kowtow to China now (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/dont-kowtow-to-china-now/story-fn59niix-1226047967727) By Paul Dibb | The Australian

    PRIME Minister Julia Gillard's visit to China has confirmed important strategic priorities for Australia. She called for Australia and China to gradually increase their defence co-operation as a means to promote good relations and understanding of each other. She also talked about wanting to see increased military transparency by China.

    Defence Minister Stephen Smith says he has also made it very clear to his Chinese counterpart that Australia expects China to abide by, and conduct itself, in accordance with international norms, including the international law of the sea.

    Given China's military build-up and its more aggressive behaviour of late in the East and South China Seas, these are entirely legitimate strategic interests for Australia.

    While Gillard has made it plain that she does not support the idea of the US and its allies containing China, her strong support of the US alliance during her recent visit to Washington will not have gone unnoticed in Beijing. It was appropriate that the Australian PM first visit Japan and South Korea before going to China. The fact is that the US, Japan and South Korea are - like us - democracies and allies of America. China will never be our ally.

    None of this undermines the PM's objective of encouraging increased military co-operation and defence links. We have to understand what China intends to do with its military forces in future.

    These are non-trivial issues for Australia over the next two or three decades. Of course it is sensible policy to encourage Beijing to be a responsible emerging great power and to be closely engaged in the development of security and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.

    It is also good policy to engage China across the full range of our bilateral relationship - political, economic, defence, cultural and human rights.

    But as Beijing's power inevitably grows this suggests that in parallel with engagement we should also have a policy of hedging against a more belligerent China in future.

    The Australian defence white paper of May 2009 states that by 2030 China will be the strongest Asian military power by a considerable margin and that its military modernisation will be increasingly characterised by the development of power projection capabilities.

    As China becomes more powerful economically, it can be expected to develop more substantial military capabilities befitting its size. But, as the white paper notes, the pace, scope and structure of China's military modernisation have the potential to give its neighbours cause for concern.

    If China does not become more transparent, questions will inevitably arise about the purpose of its military development plans. Beijing is developing some quite impressive capabilities that will eventually make it more hazardous for the US and its allies to operate in China's maritime approaches with impunity. This is increasingly recognised to be the case by the US and Japan.

    In Australia, there have been some fantasies lately suggesting we should be able to develop forces capable of attacking China directly. That is dangerous and stupid. We can, however, aspire to building force elements - including submarines - that would contribute usefully to a US-led coalition force, which would include Japan and Australia.

    This is not to see China as the next inevitable enemy. Now and foreseeably it will not have the awesome military strength of the former Soviet Union. And Beijing has no experience whatsoever of prosecuting a modern war.

    China needs a basically peaceful strategic environment so that it can give priority to governing an increasingly restive population of 1.3 billion.

    China is not a country without weaknesses. We need to remember this before we conclude that China will continue to rise and rise and not experience serious hurdles.

    To take one example, the one-child policy has resulted in a rapidly ageing population.

    By 2014, China's working-age numbers will begin to decline and by 2040 some 30 per cent of China's population will be over 60 years old.

    This will inevitably have serious implications for economic growth rates, which are already predicted to decline to about 7 per cent a year compared with 10-12 per cent growth previously.

    There are many other political, economic, environmental and corruption problems facing China in the 21st century.

    We should be wary of straight line extrapolations that predict China's inevitable growth to a position of regional supremacy.

    There are other geopolitical factors at work.

    If China becomes more aggressive it will face a closing of the ranks in Asia. Already, its more confrontational stance over maritime disputes and its unquestioning support of North Korea has led Japan and South Korea to be more pro-American.

    While it is true that many countries in the region, including Australia, are increasingly dependent on China for our economic wellbeing, there is growing unease about China's military build-up and its increasingly aggressive attitude over its territorial claims.

    The fact is that China's only really close friends in Asia are North Korea, Burma and Pakistan. India will inevitably find itself uncomfortable with China's growing power and that is already the case with Vietnam. Other middle powers, such as Indonesia, will also have to take account of how a more assertive China conducts itself.

    We have two scenarios here. The first is a China that continues to focus on its economic wellbeing and which increasingly sees it in its interest to be part of building a co-operative regional security environment (what Beijing calls "a harmonious region"). The second scenario is the one we must hedge against: it involves a militarily stronger and more dangerous China.

    The jury is out on which direction China will take. It is not prudent at present to panic and to build forces supposedly capable of tearing an arm off China. Nor is it time to kowtow and acknowledge the inevitability of Chinese primacy accompanied by, as some would have it, the equally inevitable decline of a US fatally weakened by its current economic difficulties.

    Paul Dibb is emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University. In 1978, as deputy director of defence intelligence, he visited China to open up defence relations.


    Another kind of Chinese History (http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3164&Itemid=206) By Mark O'Neill | Asia Sentinel



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